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    中国的真实增长:不是神话

     Jonathan Anderson在“中国的真实增长:不是神话,不是奇迹”的文章中,对中国乃至亚洲地区在近半个世纪所经历的高速增长作了一个总结性的分析。他将中国经历的高速增长主要的归功于较高的储蓄率(通常位于30%以上),这是亚洲地区人们的普遍的生活习惯。亚洲人善于储蓄,而并不像美国人那样善于投资。较高的储蓄率使得货币资本供给充裕,投资成本低,尽管中国的资本回报率相对较低,但“中国企业[仍]是有盈利的,而且还相当不少”。作者对这一点有着独特的认识,“如果国内的储蓄率能达到GDP的30%甚至更高,那么经济增长想不达到8%都难”。 文中提到了生产力的发展,但Anderson很显然没有将其列入首要因素。但就我个人来看,我仍然相信市场体制所带来的资源的优化配置,以及生产效率的大幅度提高,是促就中国经济持续增长的主要因素。
     有趣的是,亚洲地区的成功靠的是“勤奋,而不是天才”,Paul Krugman如是说。

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    写的好
    好文章
    Jan. 24

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